2026 NAU Agricultural Forecast

Cattle

Namibia is currently in an extended recovery period following drought conditions, with some areas experiencing three consecutive dry years since 2019. This prolonged environmental stress necessitated widespread destocking across the cattle sector.

Between January and September 2025, cattle marketing declined sharply. Live exports to South Africa, for example, contracted by approximately 76%, while an estimated 60% of animals traded through auctions were retained for breeding  and growing out to oxen purposes. This pronounced contraction in marketable supply reflects a fundamental biological constraint: after several years of environmental stress, producers simply did not have enough market-ready animals available for sale.

Looking ahead, this herd rebuilding process is expected to continue into 2026, with marketing volumes anticipated to recover modestly, potentially growing by 20-30% as  herd rebuilding gains stability.

This cyclical contraction highlights the vulnerability of the livestock sector  to Namibia's highly variable and erratic rainfall, establishing the environmental context as the primary, non-negotiable factor influencing market participation.

Cattle prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 across all categories. Weaner prices will be shaped by several dynamics. Demand for weaners in South Africa is anticipated to remain stable, while the improved profitability of South African feedlots, largely driven by low  yellow maize prices, and high carcass selling prices. Locally, improved rainfall could further support stronger demand for weaners and, in turn, bolster prices. However, uncertainty remains around the evolving Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) situation in both countries, which poses a significant risk to market stability.

Sheep

Namibia’s sheep sector remained under considerable pressure in 2024–2025, as drought-related destocking and weak external demand significantly reduced throughput. In 2024, sheep production value contracted by 6.61%, reflecting reduced slaughter availability and declining export opportunities to South Africa and other markets.

These pressures intensified in 2025, with sheep marketing dropping by 40.85% in the first half of the year. Export abattoirs recorded a 40.57% decline in slaughter, while live exports to South Africa,  Namibia’s dominant outlet for small stock fell by nearly 50%. Despite lower volumes, producer prices for lamb and sheep strengthened notably in 2025, rising by 22.92% and 27.43% respectively. Despite this improvement, these gains have not fully offset the long-term rise in production expenses, leaving many farmers still operating under a cost-price squeeze.

Looking at 2026, slaughter availability will improve as farmers prioritized flock rebuilding and expects 80% of normal supply levels as herd rebuilding occurs much faster in sheep than in cattle. This suggests that supply constraints will ease more quickly for sheep, supporting a gradual stabilization of market conditions.

Poultry

Namibia’s poultry sector continues to expand rapidly and is the second biggest sector contributing to farmers cash receipts, supported by growing private-sector investment and strengthened regulatory engagement. In 2024, broiler production increased by 14.94% and egg production by 6.63%, with further growth recorded in 2025 as more than 9.3 million chickens were marketed in the first half of the year, driven largely by NPI and the successful first year of operations of Kadila Poultry.

Several producers are undergoing major expansions, with new processing plants and integrated breeder–hatchery systems positioning the industry to scale up significantly over the next few years. The SME segment is also growing, producing approximately 60,000 broilers per week for informal markets. Regulatory support through LLPBN border policing and levy-funded enforcement has strengthened controls against poultry smuggling, while ongoing engagements with DVS on an Avian Influenza Master Plan aim to safeguard sector biosecurity.

Despite this strong  domestic momentum, Namibia still imports large volumes of poultry meat (over 11,388 tons in the first half of 2025, which is about 30% of domestic consumption) and remains heavily dependent on imported yellow maize and soy for feed, highlighting opportunities for domestic crop production development.

Looking ahead to 2026, the poultry sector is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, supported by expanding processing capacity, the maturation of new breeder and hatchery operations, and improved biosecurity planning. Production growth is likely to continue as large players reach full operational scale, while SME participation remains robust.

Import competition will persist, but stronger border control enforcement to curb smuggling by LLPBN, coupled with increasing domestic output, is expected to gradually improve market share of locally produced poultry. Feed cost volatility and Avian Influenza risks in neighbouring countries remain key challenges, but overall, the sector is well-positioned for sustained growth, with potential to become one of Namibia’s largest contributors to agricultural production value.

Agronomy:

Namibia’s grain sector remains heavily dependent on imports due to limited irrigated capacity and high climate sensitivity.

Local supply is expected to improve modestly in 2026, supported by a forecast of normal to above-normal rainfall across most production regions during the 2025/2026 season. Despite this improvement, Namibia will still rely on 67% imports for grains in 2026, only slightly better than the 73% import dependence in 2025. Local white maize purchases are projected to increase from 70,000 tons in 2025 to 80,000 tons in 2026, while wheat remains significantly import-dependent, with only 16% of national demand expected to be met locally. Grain prices are forecast to remain stable in 2026.

Horticulture:

Horticulture continues to show structural growth, with formal market share expected to increase from 34% to 37% in 2025 due to rising citrus and potato output, supported by upcoming interventions such as the Potato Value Chain Development Scheme. Export within the horticulture industry , particularly grapes, citrus and blueberries, will continue driving high-value growth, with export volumes expected to increase.

Namibia, is projected to supply around 40% of Southern Africa’s early table grape exports, reinforcing its strategic importance in the early-season global market window. With operations well underway in the Aussenkehr Valley, the 2025/2026 season is anticipated to be productive and competitive, further strengthening table grapes as one of Namibia’s most dynamic horticultural export crops. The continued development of the Walvis Bay logistics corridor is strengthening Namibia’s competitiveness as a preferred export route for early-season table grapes offering faster shipping than Cape Town and supporting national logistic goals.